Ivermectin for COVID-19 in adults in the community (PRINCIPLE): An open, randomised, controlled, adaptive platform trial of short- and longer-term outcomes.

BACKGROUND: The evidence for whether ivermectin impacts recovery, hospital admissions, and longer-term outcomes in COVID-19 is contested. The WHO recommends its use only in the context of clinical trials. METHODS: In this multicentre, open-label, multi-arm, adaptive platform randomised controlled trial, we included participants aged ≥18 years in the community, with a positive SARS-CoV-2 test, and symptoms lasting ≤14 days. Participants were randomised to usual care, usual care plus ivermectin tablets (target 300-400 µg/kg per dose, once daily for 3 days), or usual care plus other interventions. Co-primary endpoints were time to first self-reported recovery, and COVID-19 related hospitalisation/death within 28 days, analysed using Bayesian models. Recovery at 6 months was the primary, longer term outcome. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ISRCTN86534580. FINDINGS: The primary analysis included 8811 SARS-CoV-2 positive participants (median symptom duration 5 days), randomised to ivermectin (n = 2157), usual care (n = 3256), and other treatments (n = 3398) from June 23, 2021 to July 1, 2022. Time to self-reported recovery was shorter in the ivermectin group compared with usual care (hazard ratio 1·15 [95% Bayesian credible interval, 1·07 to 1·23], median decrease 2.06 days [1·00 to 3·06]), probability of meaningful effect (pre-specified hazard ratio ≥1.2) 0·192). COVID-19-related hospitalisations/deaths (odds ratio 1·02 [0·63 to 1·62]; estimated percentage difference 0% [-1% to 0·6%]), serious adverse events (three and five respectively), and the proportion feeling fully recovered were similar in both groups at 6 months (74·3% and 71·2% respectively (RR = 1·05, [1·02 to 1·08]) and also at 3 and 12 months. INTERPRETATION: Ivermectin for COVID-19 is unlikely to provide clinically meaningful improvement in recovery, hospital admissions, or longer-term outcomes. Further trials of ivermectin for SARS-Cov-2 infection in vaccinated community populations appear unwarranted. FUNDING: UKRI/National Institute of Health Research (MC_PC_19079).

Early HIV viral suppression associated with subsequent 12-month treatment success among people living with HIV in South Africa.

BACKGROUND: We analyzed the STREAM (Simplifying HIV TREAtment and Monitoring) study to determine risk factors associated with HIV viraemia and poor retention 18 months after initiation of antiretroviral therapy (ART). METHODS: The STREAM study was an open-label randomized controlled trial in Durban, South Africa, that enrolled 390 people living with HIV presenting for their first HIV viral load measurement ~6 months after ART initiation. We used modified Poisson regression with robust standard errors to describe associations between baseline characteristics and three HIV outcomes 18 months after ART initiation: HIV viraemia (>50 copies/mL), poor retention in HIV care, and a composite outcome of poor retention in care and/or HIV viraemia. RESULTS: Approximately 18 months after ART initiation, 45 (11.5%) participants were no longer retained in care and 43 (11.8%) had viraemia. People with CD4 counts <200 and those with viraemia 6 months after ART initiation were significantly more likely to have viraemia 18 months after ART initiation (adjusted relative risk [aRR] 4.0; 95% confidence interval [CI] 2.1-7.5 and aRR 5.5; 95% CI 3.3-9.0, respectively). People who did not disclose their HIV status and had viraemia after ART initiation were more likely to not be retained in care 12 months later (aRR 2.6; 95% CI 1.1-6.1 and aRR 2.2; 95% CI 1.0-4.8). People with a CD4 count <200 and those with viraemia were more likely to not achieve the composite outcome 18 months after ART initiation. CONCLUSIONS: Viraemia after ART initiation was the strongest predictor of subsequent viraemia and poor care retention. Understanding early indicators can help target our interventions to better engage people who may be more likely to experience persistent viraemia or disengage from HIV care.

Randomized controlled trial of molnupiravir SARS-CoV-2 viral and antibody response in at-risk adult outpatients.

Viral clearance, antibody response and the mutagenic effect of molnupiravir has not been elucidated in at-risk populations. Non-hospitalised participants within 5 days of SARS-CoV-2 symptoms randomised to receive molnupiravir (n = 253) or Usual Care (n = 324) were recruited to study viral and antibody dynamics and the effect of molnupiravir on viral whole genome sequence from 1437 viral genomes. Molnupiravir accelerates viral load decline, but virus is detectable by Day 5 in most cases. At Day 14 (9 days post-treatment), molnupiravir is associated with significantly higher viral persistence and significantly lower anti-SARS-CoV-2 spike antibody titres compared to Usual Care. Serial sequencing reveals increased mutagenesis with molnupiravir treatment. Persistence of detectable viral RNA at Day 14 in the molnupiravir group is associated with higher transition mutations following treatment cessation. Viral viability at Day 14 is similar in both groups with post-molnupiravir treated samples cultured up to 9 days post cessation of treatment. The current 5-day molnupiravir course is too short. Longer courses should be tested to reduce the risk of potentially transmissible molnupiravir-mutated variants being generated. Trial registration: ISRCTN30448031.

Cost-utility analysis of molnupiravir plus usual care versus usual care alone as early treatment for community-based adults with COVID-19 and increased risk of adverse outcomes in the UK PANORAMIC trial.

BACKGROUND: The cost-effectiveness of molnupiravir, an oral antiviral for early treatment of SARS-CoV-2, has not been established in vaccinated populations. AIM: To evaluate the cost-effectiveness of molnupiravir relative to usual care alone among mainly vaccinated community-based people at higher risk of severe outcomes from COVID-19 over six months. DESIGN AND SETTING: Economic evaluation of the PANORAMIC trial in the UK. METHOD: A cost-utility analysis that adopted a UK National Health Service and personal social services perspective and a six-month time horizon was performed using PANORAMIC trial data. Cost-effectiveness was expressed in terms of incremental cost per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gained. Sensitivity and subgroup analyses assessed the impacts of uncertainty and heterogeneity. Threshold analysis explored the price for molnupiravir consistent with likely reimbursement. RESULTS: In the base case analysis, molnupiravir had higher mean costs of £449 (95% confidence interval [CI] 445 to 453) and higher mean QALYs of 0.0055 (95% CI 0.004 to 0.007) than usual care (mean incremental cost per QALY of £81190). Sensitivity and subgroup analyses showed similar results, except those aged ≥75 years with a 55% probability of being cost-effective at a £30000 per QALY threshold. Molnupiravir would have to be priced around £147 per course to be cost-effective at a £15000 per QALY threshold. CONCLUSION: Molnupiravir at the current cost of £513 per course is unlikely to be cost-effective relative to usual care over a six-month time horizon among mainly vaccinated COVID-19 patients at increased risk of adverse outcomes, except those aged ≥75 years.

Clinical outcomes with second-line dolutegravir in people with virological failure on first-line non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor-based regimens in South Africa: a retrospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Dolutegravir (DTG) is recommended for second-line antiretroviral therapy (ART) after virological failure on first-line non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor (NNRTI)-based regimens in people living with HIV in low-income and middle-income countries. We compared the effectiveness of DTG versus the previously recommended ritonavir-boosted lopinavir (LPV/r) regimen for second-line treatment in South Africa. METHODS: In this retrospective observational cohort study, we used routinely collected, de-identified data from 59 primary health-care facilities in eThekwini Municipality, KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. We included people living with HIV aged 15 years or older with virological failure (defined as two consecutive viral loads of ≥1000 copies per mL at least 56 days apart) on first-line NNRTI-based ART containing tenofovir disoproxil fumarate (TDF) and who switched to second-line ART. Our primary outcomes were retention in care and viral suppression (<50 copies per mL) at 12 months after starting second-line treatment. We used modified Poisson regression models to compare these outcomes between second-line regimens (zidovudine [AZT]/emtricitabine or lamivudine [XTC]/DTG; TDF/XTC/DTG; and AZT/XTC/LPV/r). FINDINGS: We included 1214 participants in our study, of whom 729 (60%) were female and 485 (40%) were male, and whose median age was 36 years (IQR 30-42). 689 (57%) were switched to AZT/XTC/LPV/r, 217 (18%) to AZT/XTC/DTG, and 308 (25%) to TDF/XTC/DTG. Compared with AZT/XTC/LPV/r (75%), retention in care was higher with AZT/XTC/DTG (86%, adjusted risk ratio [aRR]=1·14, 95% CI 1·03-1·27; adjusted risk difference [aRD]=10·89%, 95% CI 2·01 to 19·78) but similar with TDF/XTC/DTG (77%, aRR=1·01, 0·94-1·10; aRD=1·04%, -5·03 to 7·12). Observed retention in care was lower with TDF/XTC/DTG than with AZT/XTC/DTG, although in multivariable analysis evidence for a difference was weak (aRR=0·89, 0·78-1·01, p=0·060; aRD=-9·85%, -20·33 to 0·63, p=0·066). Of 799 participants who were retained in care with a 12-month viral load test done, viral suppression was higher with AZT/XTC/DTG (59%; aRR=1·25, 1·06-1·47; aRD=11·57%, 2·37 to 20·76) and higher with TDF/XTC/DTG (61%; aRR=1·30, 1·14-1·48; aRD=14·16%, 7·14 to 21·18) than with AZT/XTC/LPV/r (47%). INTERPRETATION: These findings from routine care support further implementation of WHO's recommendation to use DTG instead of LPV/r in people living with HIV who experience virological failure while receiving first-line NNRTI-based ART. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. TRANSLATION: For the isiZulu translation of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.

Urine tenofovir and dried blood spot tenofovir diphosphate concentrations and viraemia in people taking efavirenz and dolutegravir-based antiretroviral therapy.

OBJECTIVE: We aimed to determine whether urine tenofovir (TFV) and dried blood spot (DBS) tenofovir diphosphate (TFV-DP) concentrations are associated with concurrent HIV viraemia. DESIGN: Cross-sectional study among people with HIV (PWH) receiving tenofovir disoproxil fumarate (TDF)-based antiretroviral therapy (ART). METHODS: We used dual tandem liquid chromatography and mass spectrometry to measure urine TFV and DBS TFV-DP concentrations, and evaluated their associations with concurrent viraemia at least 1000 copies/ml using logistic regression models. In exploratory analyses, we used receiver operating curves (ROCs) to estimate optimal urine TFV and DBS TFV-DP thresholds to predict concurrent viraemia. RESULTS: Among 124 participants, 68 (54.8%) were women, median age was 39 years [interquartile range (IQR) 34-45] and 74 (59.7%) were receiving efavirenz versus 50 (40.3%) receiving dolutegravir. Higher concentrations of urine TFV [1000 ng/ml increase, odds ratio (OR) 0.97 95% CI 0.94-0.99, P  = 0.005] and DBS TFV-DP (100 fmol/punch increase, OR 0.76, 95% CI 0.67-0.86, P  < 0.001) were associated with lower odds of viraemia. There was evidence that these associations were stronger among people receiving dolutegravir than among people receiving efavirenz (urine TFV, P  = 0.072; DBS TFV-DP, P  = 0.003). Nagelkerke pseudo- R2 for the DBS TFV-DP models was higher for the urine TFV models, demonstrating a stronger relationship between DBS TFV-DP and viraemia. Among people receiving dolutegravir, a DBS TFV-DP concentration of 483 fmol/punch had 88% sensitivity and 85% specificity to predict concurrent viraemia ≥1000 copies/ml. CONCLUSION: Among PWH receiving TDF-based ART, urine TFV concentrations, and in particular DBS TFV-DP concentrations, were strongly associated with concurrent viraemia, especially among people receiving dolutegravir.

Clinical Outcomes After Viremia Among People Receiving Dolutegravir vs Efavirenz-Based First-line Antiretroviral Therapy in South Africa.

Background: We aimed to compare clinical outcomes after viremia between dolutegravir vs efavirenz-based first-line antiretroviral therapy (ART) as evidence is lacking outside clinical trials in resource-limited settings. Methods: We conducted a retrospective cohort analysis with routine data from 59 South African clinics. We included people with HIV aged ≥15 years receiving first-line tenofovir disoproxil fumarate, lamivudine, dolutegravir (TLD) or tenofovir disoproxil fumarate, emtricitabine, efavirenz (TEE) and with first viremia (≥50 copies/mL) between June and November 2020. We used multivariable modified Poisson regression models to compare retention in care and viral suppression (<50 copies/mL) after 12 months between participants on TLD vs TEE. Results: At first viremia, among 9657 participants, 6457 (66.9%) were female, and the median age (interquartile range [IQR]) was 37 (31-44) years; 7598 (78.7%) were receiving TEE and 2059 (21.3%) TLD. Retention in care was slightly higher in the TLD group (84.9%) than TEE (80.8%; adjusted risk ratio [aRR], 1.03; 95% CI, 1.00-1.06). Of 6569 participants retained in care with a 12-month viral load, viral suppression was similar between the TLD (78.9%) and TEE (78.8%) groups (aRR, 1.02; 95% CI, 0.98-1.05). However, 3368 participants changed ART during follow-up: the majority from TEE to first-line TLD (89.1%) or second-line (TLD 3.4%, zidovudine/emtricitabine/lopinavir-ritonavir 2.1%). In a sensitivity analysis among the remaining 3980 participants who did not change ART during follow-up and had a 12-month viral load, viral suppression was higher in the TLD (78.9%) than TEE (74.9%) group (aRR, 1.07; 95% CI, 1.03-1.12). Conclusions: Among people with viremia on first-line ART, dolutegravir was associated with slightly better retention in care and similar or better viral suppression than efavirenz.

Clinical outcomes after extended 12-month antiretroviral therapy prescriptions in a community-based differentiated HIV service delivery programme in South Africa: a retrospective cohort study.

INTRODUCTION: There is an urgent need for more efficient models of differentiated antiretroviral therapy (ART) delivery for people living with HIV (PLHIV), with the World Health Organization calling for evidence to guide whether annual ART prescriptions and consultations (12M scripts) should be recommended in global guidelines. We assessed the association between 12M scripts (allowed temporarily during the COVID-19 pandemic) versus standard 6-month prescriptions and consultations (6M scripts) and clinical outcomes. METHODS: We performed a retrospective cohort study using routine, de-identified data from 59 public clinics in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. We included PLHIV aged ≥18 years with a recent suppressed viral load (VL) who had been referred for community ART delivery with 6M or 12M scripts. We used modified Poisson regression to compare 12-month retention-in-care (≤90 days late for all visits) and viral suppression (<50 copies/ml) between prescription groups. RESULTS: Among 27,148 PLHIV referred for community ART during Jun-Dec 2020, 57.4% received 12M scripts. The median age was 39 years and 69.4% were women. Age, sex, prior community ART use and time on ART were similar across groups. However, more of the 12M script group had dolutegravir-based regimens (60.0% vs. 46.3%). The median (interquartile range) number of clinic visits in the year of follow-up was 1(1-1) in the 12M group and 2(2-3) in the 6M group. Retention was 94.6% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 94.2%-94.9%) among those receiving 12M scripts and 91.8% (95% CI: 91.3%-92.3%) among those with 6M scripts. 17.1% and 16.9% of clients in the 12M and 6M groups were missing follow-up VL data, respectively. Among those with VLs, 92.4% (95% CI: 92.0%-92.9%) in the 12M group and 91.4% (95% CI: 90.8%-92.0%) in the 6M group were suppressed. After adjusting for age, sex, ART regimen, time on ART, prior community ART use and calendar month, retention (adjusted risk ratio [aRR]: 1.03, 95% CI: 1.01-1.05) and suppression (aRR: 1.00, 95% CI: 0.99-1.01) were similar across groups. CONCLUSIONS: Among PLHIV referred for community ART with a recent suppressed VL, the use of 12M scripts reduced clinic visits without impacting short-term clinical outcomes. 12M scripts should be considered for differentiated service delivery programmes.

Diagnostic accuracy of a point-of-care urine tenofovir assay, and associations with HIV viraemia and drug resistance among people receiving dolutegravir and efavirenz-based antiretroviral therapy.

INTRODUCTION: Novel point-of-care assays which measure urine tenofovir (TFV) concentrations may have a role in improving adherence monitoring for people living with HIV (PLHIV) receiving antiretroviral therapy (ART). However, further studies of their diagnostic accuracy, and whether results are associated with viraemia and drug resistance, are needed to guide their use, particularly in the context of the global dolutegravir rollout. METHODS: We conducted a cross-sectional evaluation among PLHIV receiving first-line ART containing tenofovir disoproxil fumarate at enrolment into a randomized trial in two South African public sector clinics. We calculated the diagnostic accuracy of the Abbott point-of-care immunoassay to detect urine TFV compared to liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry (LC-MS/MS). We evaluated the association between point-of-care urine TFV results and self-reported adherence, viraemia ≥1000 copies/ml and HIV drug resistance, among people receiving either efavirenz or dolutegravir-based ART. RESULTS: Between August 2020 and March 2022, we enrolled 124 participants. The median age was 39 (IQR 34-45) years, 55% were women, 74 (59.7%) were receiving efavirenz and 50 (40.3%) dolutegravir. The sensitivity and specificity of the immunoassay to detect urine TFV ≥1500 ng/ml compared to LC-MS/MS were 96.1% (95% CI 90.0-98.8) and 95.2% (75.3-100.0), respectively. Urine TFV results were associated with short (p<0.001) and medium-term (p = 0.036) self-reported adherence. Overall, 44/124 (35.5%) had viraemia, which was associated with undetectable TFV in those receiving efavirenz (OR 6.01, 1.27-39.0, p = 0.014) and dolutegravir (OR 25.7, 4.20-294.8, p<0.001). However, in those with viraemia while receiving efavirenz, 8/27 (29.6%) had undetectable urine TFV, compared to 11/17 (64.7%) of those receiving dolutegravir. Drug resistance was detected in 23/27 (85.2%) of those receiving efavirenz and only 1/16 (6.3%) of those receiving dolutegravir. There was no association between urine TFV results and drug resistance. CONCLUSIONS: Among PLHIV receiving ART, a rapid urine TFV immunoassay can be used to accurately monitor urine TFV levels compared to the gold standard of LC-MS/MS. Undetectable point-of-care urine TFV results were associated with viraemia, particularly among people receiving dolutegravir. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Pan-African Clinical Trials Registry: PACTR202001785886049.

Platform adaptive trial of novel antivirals for early treatment of COVID-19 In the community (PANORAMIC): protocol for a randomised, controlled, open-label, adaptive platform trial of community novel antiviral treatment of COVID-19 in people at increased risk of more severe disease.

INTRODUCTION: There is an urgent need to determine the safety, effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of novel antiviral treatments for COVID-19 in vaccinated patients in the community at increased risk of morbidity and mortality from COVID-19. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: PANORAMIC is a UK-wide, open-label, prospective, adaptive, multiarm platform, randomised clinical trial that evaluates antiviral treatments for COVID-19 in the community. A master protocol governs the addition of new antiviral treatments as they become available, and the introduction and cessation of existing interventions via interim analyses. The first two interventions to be evaluated are molnupiravir (Lagevrio) and nirmatrelvir/ritonavir (Paxlovid). ELIGIBILITY CRITERIA: community-dwelling within 5 days of onset of symptomatic COVID-19 (confirmed by PCR or lateral flow test), and either (1) aged 50 years and over, or (2) aged 18-49 years with qualifying comorbidities. Registration occurs via the trial website and by telephone. Recruitment occurs remotely through the central trial team, or in person through clinical sites. Participants are randomised to receive either usual care or a trial drug plus usual care. Outcomes are collected via a participant-completed daily electronic symptom diary for 28 days post randomisation. Participants and/or their Trial Partner are contacted by the research team after days 7, 14 and 28 if the diary is not completed, or if the participant is unable to access the diary. The primary efficacy endpoint is all-cause, non-elective hospitalisation and/or death within 28 days of randomisation. Multiple prespecified interim analyses allow interventions to be stopped for futility or superiority based on prespecified decision criteria. A prospective economic evaluation is embedded within the trial. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: Ethical approval granted by South Central-Berkshire REC number: 21/SC/0393; IRAS project ID: 1004274. Results will be presented to policymakers and at conferences, and published in peer-reviewed journals. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: ISRCTN30448031; EudraCT number: 2021-005748-31.

Clinical outcomes after the introduction of dolutegravir for second-line antiretroviral therapy in South Africa: a retrospective cohort study.

Background: Dolutegravir is now recommended for second-line anti-retroviral therapy (ART) in low- and middle-income countries. We compared outcomes with dolutegravir (DTG) versus the previous lopinavir/ritonavir (LPV/r) regimen in South Africa. Methods: We used routinely collected, de-identified data from 59 South African clinics. We included people living with HIV aged ≥ 15 years with virologic failure (two consecutive viral loads ≥1000 copies/mL) on first-line tenofovir disoproxil fumarate (TDF)-based ART and switched to second-line ART. We used modified Poisson regression models to compare outcomes of 12-month retention-in-care and viral suppression (<50 copies/ml) after switching to second-line regimens of zidovudine (AZT), emtricitabine/lamivudine (XTC), DTG and TDF/XTC/DTG and AZT/XTC/LPV/r. Findings: Of 1214 participants, 729 (60.0%) were female, median age was 36 years (interquartile range 30 to 42), 689 (56.8%) were switched to AZT/XTC/LPV/r, 217 (17.9%) to AZT/XTC/DTG and 308 (25.4%) to TDF/XTC/DTG. Retention-in-care was higher with AZT/XTC/DTG (85.7%, adjusted risk ratio (aRR) 1.14, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.03 to 1.27; adjusted risk difference (aRD) 10.89%, 95%CI 2.01 to 19.78) but not different with TDF/XTC/DTG (76.9%, aRR 1.01, 95%CI 0.94 to 1.10; aRD 1.04%, 95%CI -5.03 to 7.12) compared to AZT/XTC/LPV/r (75.2%). Retention-in-care with TDF/XTC/DTG was not statistically significantly different from AZT/XTC/DTG (aRR 0.89, 95%CI 0.78 to 1.01; aRD -9.85%, 95%CI -20.33 to 0.63). Of 799 participants who were retained-in-care with a 12-month viral load, viral suppression was higher with AZT/XTC/DTG (59.3%, aRR 1.25, 95%CI 1.06 to 1.47; aRD 11.57%, 95%CI 2.37 to 20.76) and TDF/XTC/DTG (60.7%, aRR 1.30, 95%CI 1.14 to 1.48; aRD 14.16%, 95%CI 7.14 to 21.18) than with the AZT/XTC/LPV/r regimen (46.7%). Interpretation: DTG-based second-line regimens were associated with similar or better retention-in-care and better viral suppression than the LPV/r-based regimen. TDF/XTC/DTG had similar viral suppression compared to AZT/XTC/DTG. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Africa Oxford Initiative.

Point-of-Care Viral Load Testing to Manage HIV Viremia During the Rollout of Dolutegravir-Based ART in South Africa: A Randomized Feasibility Study (POwER).

BACKGROUND: Data are required regarding the feasibility of conducting a randomized trial of point-of-care viral load (VL) testing to guide management of HIV viremia and to provide estimates of effect to guide potential future trial design. SETTING: Two public South African clinics during the dolutegravir-based antiretroviral therapy (ART) rollout. METHODS: We randomized adults receiving first-line ART, with recent VL ≥1000 copies/mL, in a 1:1 ratio to receive point-of-care Xpert HIV-1 VL versus standard-of-care laboratory VL testing after 12 weeks. Feasibility outcomes included proportions of eligible patients enrolled and completing follow-up and VL process outcomes. Estimates of effect were assessed using the trial primary outcome of VL <50 copies/mL after 24 weeks. RESULTS: From August 2020 to March 2022, we enrolled 80 eligible participants, an estimated 24% of those eligible. 47 of 80 (58.8%) were women, and the median age was 38.5 years (interquartile range [IQR], 33-45). 44 of 80 (55.0%) were receiving dolutegravir, and 36 of 80 (465.0%) were receiving efavirenz. After 12 weeks, point-of-care participants received VL results after median 3.1 hours (IQR 2.6-3.8), versus 7 days (IQR 6-8, P < 0.001) in standard of care. Twelve-week follow-up VL was ≥1000 copies/mL in 13 of 39 (33.3%) point-of-care participants and in 16 of 41 (39.0%) standard-of-care participants; 11 of 13 (84.6%) and 12 of 16 (75.0%) switched to second-line ART. After 24 weeks, 76 of 80 (95.0%) completed follow-up. 27 of 39 (69.2% [95% CI: 53.4 to 81.4]) point-of-care participants achieved VL <50 copies/mL versus 29 of 40 (72.5% [57.0 to 83.9]) standard-of-care participants. Point-of-care participants had median 3 (IQR, 3-4) clinical visits versus 4 (IQR, 4-5) in standard-of-care participants ( P < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: It was feasible to conduct a trial of point-of-care VL testing to manage viremia. Point-of-care VL lead to quicker results and fewer clinical visits, but estimates of 24-week VL suppression were similar between arms. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Pan African Clinical Trials Registry: PACTR202001785886049.

Inhaled Budesonide for COVID-19 in People at Higher Risk of Complications in the Community: The UK National Community Randomi.

Background The effectiveness of repurposed treatments with supportive evidence for higher risk individuals with COVID-19 in the community is unknown. In the UK PRINCIPLE national platform trial we aimed to determine whether 're-purposed medicines' (hydroxychloroquine, azithromycin, doxycycline, colchicine, inhaled budesonide, and other interventions) reduced time to recovery and COVID-19 related hospitalisations/deaths among people at higher risk of COVID-19 complications in the community. We mainly report the findings for budesonide arm here. Methods Participants in this multicentre, open-label, multi-arm, adaptive platform randomised controlled trial were aged ≥65, or ≥50 years with comorbidities, and unwell ≤14 days with suspected COVID-19 in the community, and were randomised to usual care, usual care plus inhaled budesonide (800µg twice daily for 14 days), or usual care plus other interventions. The co-primary endpoints are time to first self-reported recovery, and hospitalisation/death related to COVID-19, within 28 days, analysed using Bayesian models. Trial registration: ISRCTN86534580. Funded by United Kingdom Research Innovation (MC_PC_19079). Findings The trial opened on April 2, 2020, with the first 4 intervention arms stopped on futility grounds. Randomisation to the budesonide arm occurred from November 27, 2020 until March 31, 2021, when the pre-specified time to recovery superiority criterion was met. The primary analysis model includes 2530 SARS-CoV-2 positive participants, randomised to budesonide (n=787), usual care (n=1069), and other treatments (n=674). Time to first self-reported recovery was shorter in the budesonide group versus usual care (hazard ratio 1·21 [95% credible interval 1·08 to 1·36], probability of superiority >O·999, estimated benefit 2·94 [95% credible interval 1·19 to 5·12] days). An estimated 6·8% COVID-19 related hospitalisations/deaths occurred in the budesonide group versus 8·8% in usual care (estimated absolute difference, 2·0% [95% credible interval -0.2% to 4.5%], probability of superiority 0.963). In the main secondary analysis of admissions using only concurrent controls, admissions occurred in 6.6% (3.8 to 10.1%) in the budesonide group versus 8.8% (95% CI 5.2 to 13.1%), with an absolute difference of 2.2% (0.0 to 4.9%) and a hazard ratio of 0.73 (0.53 to 1.00), meeting the pre-specified superiority probability of 0.975. Three serious adverse events occurred in the budesonide group and three in usual care.

Implementation and outcomes of dolutegravir-based first-line antiretroviral therapy for people with HIV in South Africa: a retrospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: There are few data assessing the uptake of first-line dolutegravir among men and women living with HIV in low-income and middle-income countries, and subsequent clinical outcomes in non-trial settings. We aimed to determine dolutegravir uptake in women, and the effect of dolutegravir on clinical outcomes in routine care in South Africa. METHODS: In this cohort study, we analysed deidentified data from adults receiving first-line antiretroviral therapy (ART) at 59 South African clinics from Dec 1, 2019, to Feb 28, 2022, using two distinct cohorts. In the initiator cohort, we used Poisson regression models to assess the outcome of initiation with dolutegravir-based ART by gender, and associations between dolutegravir use and the outcomes of 12-month retention in care and viral suppression at less than 50 copies per mL. In the transition cohort, comprising adults who received non-dolutegravir-based first-line ART in December, 2019, we used Cox proportional hazards models to assess the outcome of transition to first-line dolutegravir by gender. We then used time-dependent propensity score matching to compare the outcomes of subsequent 12-month retention in care and viral suppression between people who transitioned to dolutegravir and those who had not yet transitioned at the same timepoint. In both the initiation and transition cohort, the primary viral load analysis was an intention-to-treat analysis, with a secondary as-treated analysis that excluded people who changed their ART regimen after baseline. FINDINGS: In the initiator cohort, between Dec 1, 2019, and Feb 28, 2022, 45 392 people were initiated on ART. 23 945 (52·8%) of 45 392 were non-pregnant women, 4780 (10·5%) were pregnant women, and 16 667 (36·7%) were men. The median participant age was 31·0 years (IQR 26·0-38·0) and 2401 (5·3%) were receiving tuberculosis treatment at time of ART initiation. 31 264 (68·9%) of 45 392 people were initiated on dolutegravir, 14 102 (31·1%) on efavirenz, and 26 (0·1%) on nevirapine. In a univariable Poisson regression model, pregnant women (risk ratio [RR] 0·57, 95% CI 0·49 to 0·66; risk difference -35·4%, 95% CI -42·3 to -28·5) and non-pregnant women (RR 0·78, 0·74 to 0·82; risk difference -18·4%, -21·6 to -15·2) were less likely to be initiated on dolutegravir than were men. In Poisson models adjusted for age, gender (including pregnancy), time, tuberculosis status, and initiation CD4 count, people initiated on dolutegravir were more likely to be retained in care at 12 months (adjusted RR 1·09, 95% CI 1·04 to 1·14; adjusted risk difference 5·2%, 2·2 to 8·4) and virally suppressed (adjusted RR 1·04, 95% CI 1·01 to 1·06; adjusted risk difference 3·1%, 1·2 to 5·1) compared with those initiated on non-dolutegravir-based regimens. For the transition cohort, on Dec 1, 2019, 180 956 people were receiving non-dolutegravir-based first-line ART at the study clinics, of whom 124 168 (68·6%) were women. The median age was 38 years (IQR 32-45), and the median time on ART was 3·9 years (2·0-6·4) years, with most people receiving efavirenz (178 624 [98·7%] people) and tenofovir (178 148 [98·4%]). By Feb 28, 2022, 121 174 (67·0%) of 180 956 people had transitioned to first-line dolutegravir at a median of 283 days (IQR 203-526). In a univariable Cox regression model the hazard of being transitioned to dolutegravir was lower in women than in men (hazard ratio 0·56, 95% CI 0·56 to 0·57). Among 92 318 propensity score matched people, the likelihood of retention in care was higher among the dolutegravir group compared with matched controls (adjusted RR 1·03, 95% CI 1·02 to 1·03; risk difference 2·5%, 95% CI 2·1 to 2·9). In the dolutegravir group, 33 423 (90·5%) of 36 920 people were suppressed at less than 50 copies per mL compared with 31 648 (89·7%) of 35 299 matched controls (adjusted RR 1·01, 95% CI 1·00 to 1·02; risk difference 0·8%, 95% CI 0·3 to 1·4). INTERPRETATION: Women were less likely to receive dolutegravir than men. As dolutegravir was associated with improved outcomes, roll-out should continue, with a particular emphasis on inclusion of women. FUNDING: Wellcome Trust, Africa Oxford Initiative, International Association of Providers of AIDS Care, and Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. TRANSLATION: For the isiZulu translation of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.

Delivery of Community-based Antiretroviral Therapy to Maintain Viral Suppression and Retention in Care in South Africa.

BACKGROUND: To determine whether the Centralized Chronic Medication Dispensing and Distribution (CCMDD) program in South Africa's differentiated ART delivery model affects clinical outcomes, we assessed viral load (VL) suppression and retention in care between patients participating in the program and those receiving the clinic-based standard of care. METHODS: Clinically stable people living with HIV (PLHIV) eligible for differentiated care were referred to the national CCMDD program and followed up for up to 6 months. In this secondary analysis of trial cohort data, we estimated the association between routine patient participation in the CCMDD program and their clinical outcomes of viral suppression (<200 copies/mL) and retention in care. RESULTS: Among 390 PLHIV, 236 (61%) were assessed for CCMDD eligibility; 144 (37%) were eligible, and 116 (30%) participated in the CCMDD program. Participants obtained their ART in a timely manner at 93% (265/286) of CCMDD visits. VL suppression and retention in care was very similar among CCMDD-eligible patients who participated in the program compared with patients who did not participate in the program (aRR: 1.03; 95% CI: 0.94-1.12). VL suppression alone (aRR: 1.02; 95% CI: 0.97-1.08) and retention in care alone (aRR: 1.03; 95% CI: 0.95-1.12) were also similar between CCMDD-eligible PLHIV who participated in the program and those who did not. CONCLUSION: The CCMDD program successfully facilitated differentiated care among clinically stable participants. PLHIV participating in the CCMDD program maintained a high proportion of viral suppression and retention in care, indicating that community-based ART delivery model did not negatively affect their HIV care outcomes.

Impact of Point-of-Care Testing on the Management of Sexually Transmitted Infections in South Africa: Evidence from the HVTN702 Human Immunodeficiency Virus Vaccine Trial.

BACKGROUND: Alternative approaches to syndromic management are needed to reduce rates of sexually transmitted infections (STIs) in resource-limited settings. We investigated the impact of point-of-care (POC) versus central laboratory-based testing on STI treatment initiation and STI adverse event (STI-AE) reporting. METHODS: We used Kaplan-Meier and Cox regression models to compare times to treatment initiation and STI-AE reporting among HVTN702 trial participants in South Africa. Neisseria gonorrhoeae (NG) and Chlamydia trachomatis (CT) were diagnosed POC at eThekwini clinic and in a central laboratory at Verulam/Isipingo clinics. All clinics used POC assays for Trichomonas vaginalis (TV) testing. RESULTS: Among 959 women (median age, 23 [interquartile range, 21-26] years), median days (95% confidence interval [95%CI]) to NG/CT treatment initiation and NG/CT-AE reporting were 0.20 (.16-.25) and 0.24 (.19-.27) at eThekwini versus 14.22 (14.12-15.09) and 15.12 (13.22-21.24) at Verulam/Isipingo (all P < .001). Median days (95%CI) to TV treatment initiation and TV-AE reporting were 0.17 (.12-.27) and 0.25 (.20-.99) at eThekwini versus 0.18 (.15-.2) and 0.24 (.15-.99) at Verulam/Isipingo (all P > .05). Cox regression analysis revealed that NG/CT treatment initiation (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR], 39.62 [95%CI, 15.13-103.74]) and NG/CT-AE reporting (aHR, 3.38 [95%CI, 2.23-5.13]) occurred faster at eThekwini versus Verulam/Isipingo, while times to TV treatment initiation (aHR, 0.93 [95%CI, .59-1.48]) and TV-AE reporting (aHR, 1.38 [95%CI, .86-2.21]) were similar. CONCLUSIONS: POC testing led to prompt STI management with potential therapeutic and prevention benefits, highlighting its utility as a diagnostic tool in resource-limited settings.

Molnupiravir plus usual care versus usual care alone as early treatment for adults with COVID-19 at increased risk of adverse outcomes (PANORAMIC): an open-label, platform-adaptive randomised controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: The safety, effectiveness, and cost-effectiveness of molnupiravir, an oral antiviral medication for SARS-CoV-2, has not been established in vaccinated patients in the community at increased risk of morbidity and mortality from COVID-19. We aimed to establish whether the addition of molnupiravir to usual care reduced hospital admissions and deaths associated with COVID-19 in this population. METHODS: PANORAMIC was a UK-based, national, multicentre, open-label, multigroup, prospective, platform adaptive randomised controlled trial. Eligible participants were aged 50 years or older-or aged 18 years or older with relevant comorbidities-and had been unwell with confirmed COVID-19 for 5 days or fewer in the community. Participants were randomly assigned (1:1) to receive 800 mg molnupiravir twice daily for 5 days plus usual care or usual care only. A secure, web-based system (Spinnaker) was used for randomisation, which was stratified by age (<50 years vs ≥50 years) and vaccination status (yes vs no). COVID-19 outcomes were tracked via a self-completed online daily diary for 28 days after randomisation. The primary outcome was all-cause hospitalisation or death within 28 days of randomisation, which was analysed using Bayesian models in all eligible participants who were randomly assigned. This trial is registered with ISRCTN, number 30448031. FINDINGS: Between Dec 8, 2021, and April 27, 2022, 26 411 participants were randomly assigned, 12 821 to molnupiravir plus usual care, 12 962 to usual care alone, and 628 to other treatment groups (which will be reported separately). 12 529 participants from the molnupiravir plus usual care group, and 12 525 from the usual care group were included in the primary analysis population. The mean age of the population was 56·6 years (SD 12·6), and 24 290 (94%) of 25 708 participants had had at least three doses of a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine. Hospitalisations or deaths were recorded in 105 (1%) of 12 529 participants in the molnupiravir plus usual care group versus 98 (1%) of 12 525 in the usual care group (adjusted odds ratio 1·06 [95% Bayesian credible interval 0·81-1·41]; probability of superiority 0·33). There was no evidence of treatment interaction between subgroups. Serious adverse events were recorded for 50 (0·4%) of 12 774 participants in the molnupiravir plus usual care group and for 45 (0·3%) of 12 934 in the usual care group. None of these events were judged to be related to molnupiravir. INTERPRETATION: Molnupiravir did not reduce the frequency of COVID-19-associated hospitalisations or death among high-risk vaccinated adults in the community. FUNDING: UK National Institute for Health and Care Research.

COVID-19 and HIV viral load suppression in children and adolescents in Durban, South Africa.

Background: The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic poses challenges to paediatric and adolescent HIV treatment programme. Modelling exercises raised concerns over potential impact of disruptions. Objectives: To describe the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on viral load (VL) testing among infants, children and adolescents on antiretroviral treatment (ART) in Durban, South Africa. Method: Routinely collected, aggregated data of monthly VL counts done on all those less than 19 years old from January 2018 to January 2022 was analysed. An interrupted time series analysis using a Prais-Winsten linear regression model, including terms for lockdowns and excess mortality determined VL trends. Results: The unadjusted mean VL was 2166 (confidence interval [CI]: 252.2) and 2016 (CI: 241.9), P = 0.039, and percentage VL suppression rates (72.9%, CI: 2.4% vs 73.6%, CI: 1.8%) across COVID and pre-COVID periods, showing no significant difference, P = 0.262. In the interrupted time series analysis, modelled monthly VL counts did not differ significantly by lockdown level (e.g., level 5 lockdown: -210.5 VLs, 95% CI: -483.0 to +62.1, P = 0.138) or excess mortality (-0.1, 95% CI: -6.3 to 6.1, P = 0.969). A significant downward trend in VL testing over time, including during the pre-COVID-19 period (-6.6 VL per month, 95% CI: -10.4 to -2.7, P = 0.002), was identified. Conclusion: Viral load suppression for children and adolescents were not negatively affected by COVID-19. A trend of decrease in VL testing predated COVID-19. What this study adds: Evidence presented that HIV VL testing and suppression rates in children and adolescents in a high burden setting were sustained through the COVID pandemic.